Penerapan Model Altman Z-Score dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan pada Perusahaan Go Public di Indonesia Periode 2008 – 2013

Abstract

The issues examined in this study: (1) Is the condition of the company's bankruptcy force delisting categories can be predicted using a model of the Altman Z-Score in the five-year period prior to the delisting of the company? (2) Is the Z -score formula and Z "-score formula can accurately predict bankruptcy ?

The sample used in this study are the companies that have force delisted from the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) due to financial difficulties and the company is still listed in the 2008-2013 that has the same size and business lines as the company delisted. The variables that were examined, namely the model variables and the Altman Z -score bankruptcy prediction. The data collected is secondary data obtained from the financial statements of the companies studied. The analysis used the analysis of the application of the Altman Z-score ( Z-score and Z "- score formula) on each of the companies studied.

The result of the study concludes that overall of manufacturing company that has been forcibly removed by Indonesian Stock Exchange can be predicted to be bankrupt during the previous five years, while the company is still active on the Indonesian Stock Exchange, Z -score formula can only be accurately classify the financial health of the company amounted to 36.84 %. In the non-manufacturing sector there are only three companies that is able to be predicted accurately from 7 companies surveyed or force delisting of 42.86 %, while the company is still active in the IDX formula Z"-score can accurately characterize the financial health of the company by 80 %.

Conclusions of this study is the Z-score formula and Z "-score formula (Altman model modification) can not accurately predict the bankruptcy of the go public company in Indonesia. Ratio to be noted that the ratio of corporate liquidity and profitability ratios.